Grace Welborn’s job as a lawyer is to make sure her clients comply with the complicated world of trade regulations.
But in February, she learned of a major regulatory development pausing the processing of certain export license applications – not from a government agency contact or a legal journal – but from a LinkedIn post.
In the online post, a fellow member of the export compliance community said the government agency had paused their work for “review of policy.” There was no official statement from the Bureau of Industry and Security, the branch of the Department of Commerce responsible for those licenses.
The online post generated lots of conversation and the pause is already having an effect on the industry.
“This definitely is putting a pin in a significant amount of business for industry users,” said Welborn, an associate at Buchanan Ingersoll & Rooney specializing in international trade and national security.
In the first 60 days since President Donald Trump returned to the White House, the uncertainty surrounding his trade policies has clouded American companies’ ability to plan ahead on how to conduct business. But beyond the impact of tariffs, smaller changes in federal trade policies are adding to the market’s unpredictability.
Among those policies are changes that directly impact some of America’s largest industries and small business owners. Beyond pausing export license applications, officials are exploring revoking the de minimis exemption, a policy allowing some online sellers to avoid tariffs. On the labor side, there are conversations about restricting the H-1B visa program, which allows U.S. companies to hire foreign workers with special skills to come work in the country. This visa helps staff some of the country’s largest companies like Amazon and Google.
“We’re playing this kind of game of international trade dodgeball but we’re playing it with hand grenades,” said Abigail Hall, senior fellow at the Independent Institute and an economics professor at the University of Tampa.
The policy change that Welborn was trying to figure out is the paused review of licensing applications, leaving many exporters in limbo.
BIS export licenses are required of companies and individuals who participate in the export and re-export of commodities, software, and technology that are either military-grade or commercial but could also be used in military applications.
Export licenses usually take between 45 to 60 days to be approved by the Bureau of Industry and Security – already a significant amount of time, Welborn said.
The pause is “undoubtedly going to extend that time,” she said.
In 2023, the bureau reviewed 37,943 license applications, according to its annual report. That same year, U.S. companies exported $8.5 billion of items under a BIS license.
For those working in the export business, the lack of communication on these changes is part of the uncertainty of planning for business – and may very well become policy. In a now-deleted video posted to the Department of Commerce’s Youtube channel on Thursday, acting BIS Secretary Robert Burkett told staff during a closed-door staff meeting that “communication with parties outside of BIS should be very cabined in.”
“We shouldn’t be talking to industry about policy or internal deliberations,” Burkett said.
BIS did not respond to requests for an interview.
For many of these companies, export licenses are not the only concern. Many high-tech companies that may require these licenses also happen to rely on H-1B visas to staff their workforce. These visas temporarily bring foreign workers to the U.S. to work for U.S. companies.
In 2024, around 400,000 H-1B visas were approved. The Trump Administration has been debating over this economic policy change, claiming the program is being misused and leaves American workers disadvantaged.
“As a long-term proposition, that’s pretty damaging because when you look at the number of high-tech industries which have been created by people from Europe, India, Japan, whatever – that flow is not going to come through in the future as it has in the past,” said Gary Hufbauer, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
Another area of uncertainty concerns the de minimis exemption – an obscure trade law loophole that allows businesses to import to the U.S. duty-free goods valued under $800. In recent years, e-commerce shops like Shein and Temu have taken advantage of the exemption, and giant clothing retailers like Forever 21 have blamed the loophole in its recent bankruptcy announcement. However, officials claim this move is part of a more robust approach to Chinese imports.
“The de minimis exemption might be a case where that is going to help American businesses actually compete with Chinese companies selling on Amazon,” said Thomas Stockwell, a macroeconomist at the University of Tampa.
However, some experts point to the heavy dependency on the de minimis exemption by low-income households to purchase goods. Many small businesses might also be using that exemption to buy items to stock their shelves. Both will see increased costs if the exemption is revoked.
“I happen to live in northern New Mexico which is a low-income area and let me tell you, people here rely on the de minimis to buy stuff, toys, dishware from abroad,” Hufbauer said. “It’ll make a certain amount of havoc among people who have gone used to being able to go online and find something.”
In the meantime, the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s unpredictable trade policies is affecting businesses across the country beyond tariffs. And uncertainty hinders economic growth.
“It’s really clear,” Hall said. “These policies are inefficient. They’re harmful to consumers. They’re harmful to U.S. producers that either export or that rely on importing goods from abroad.”