Christine Gemperle always knew almond farming came with risks. There are a lot of overhead costs. Land, water, and labor are not easy to come by in California, nor are they cheap. Trees can take several years to reach full production and can’t be scaled back when there’s less demand.
What Gemperle did not count on was a trade war.
Christine Gemperle stands on her family’s almond farm in Ceres, California. (Courtesy Christine Gemperle)
That shift forced U.S. almond farmers out of their most profitable markets, lowering prices and squeezing returns that have yet to recover, a change seen across the almond industry, where growers face rising costs and unstable returns as federal trade policy reshapes markets.
Unlike producers of some other crops, almond farmers receive little aid from the federal government to help them navigate those risks.
The shift traces back to 2018, when the United States, during President Trump’s first term, imposed tariffs on Chinese imports under Section 301 of the Trade Act. China retaliated with tariffs on U.S. goods, including agricultural exports like almonds as high as 60%, down from 10% in 2018.
California produces around 80% of the world’s supply of almonds, and roughly two-thirds of the crop is exported every year. Before 2018, China and Hong Kong were key markets for U.S. almonds. Since the trade war began, however, exports to China have declined sharply, while demand has shifted toward India, now the industry’s largest market, according to USDA data.
While total exports have remained relatively steady, profits have not. Almond prices rose through the 2010s, peaking around 2014 when prices were around $4 a pound. USDA data shows that prices dropped to $1.40 a pound in 2022, before partially rebounding to around $2 per pound in 2024.
Gemperle expected slim margins, but didn’t expect them to disappear. Her family has farmed the same 135 acre plot in Ceres, California since the 1950s, when their grandfather immigrated from Switzerland and started in poultry before expanding into almonds. “We haven’t made money in five years,” she said.
As the export markets shifted from China to India, growers moved into a larger but less profitable market. “We’re not getting the prices we used to,” said Gemperle.
While prices have recovered, returns have not kept pace. That is partly because a significant share of almonds exported to India are shipped in shell, rather than as processed kernels, meaning exporters face extra shipping and duties.
“There is tremendous uncertainty associated with India as a top buyer,” says Colin A. Carter, Professor of Agricultural and Resource Economics at the University of California, Davis.
Strong demand in China and other parts of Asia in the early 2010s drove almond growers to plant more trees, which reached full production as the 2018 tariffs took effect. As demand dried up, inventories surged and prices fell, while pandemic-related disruptions slowed exports and deepened the imbalance between supply and demand.
Growers across the country faced similar challenges, prompting a federal response, though almonds received less support. In December 2025, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced a $12 billion relief package for growers affected by what it called “unfair market disruptions.”
Only $1 billion of that aid went to specialty crop producers like almonds.
“The compensation is never quite adequate, frankly,” said Joseph Glauber, research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute. “It may pay for short-term losses, but it doesn’t cover longer-term losses.”
That limited support comes before any disruptions tied to the war in Iran drive up fertilizer costs or labor shortages linked to immigration raids affect farmers across the country.
Federal farm aid is directed to major commodity-producing regions across the Midwest, Great Plains and states like Texas where row crops like corn, soybeans and cotton are grown at scale. Despite being the most agriculturally productive state, California’s crop output is concentrated in specialty products like fruits and nuts which have historically been left out of those subsidies.
Gemperle said she has stayed afloat in part through a grower cooperative, Blue Diamond Growers, her role on the Almond Board of California, and emergency grants that help keep the farm operating.
She applied for the $12 billion relief package but expects the payouts to be limited, “at around $3 per acre,” or roughly $400 if she qualifies for the full amount.
But those programs offer little protection against long-term losses.
“Even if we were to revert to a world without tariffs, I don’t think the countries that have diverted their trade away from California almonds are going to go back all of a sudden,” said Marc F. Bellemare, an economist at the University of Minnesota.
Retaliatory tariffs during the 2018 trade dispute led to an estimated loss of nearly 290 million pounds of almond exports, according to an industry report published by Choices magazine.
Those losses were not abstract for farmers like Gemperle. She said her farm, which once supported both her and her brother’s family, can now barely meet the growing costs of production. They lost key export markets as buyers turned to Australian almonds.
Uncertain about what the future holds, Gemperle has pivoted to securing new trading partners, strengthening domestic demand and investing her personal savings to expand her farm.
“It’s starting to get a little bit better,” she said. “The question is, can we sustain that?”